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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures


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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures

Hawaii’s economy remains on a favorable path, with record-high visitor numbers, record-low unemployment, and ongoing—if unimpressive—income gains. As expected, the economy’s rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, and risks to the external environment have increased. But at present there are no signs of an imminent downturn. Instead, further growth at a restrained pace is the most likely outcome for the next few years at least.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm

Following two years of decline, the pace of building in Hawaii has stabilized. The value of construction permits is posting healthy gains across all sub-sectors this year, and projects either planned or in the pipeline will maintain construction activity near its current level through the end of the decade.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Growth Down, But Not Out

Hawaii’s expansion has slowed along several dimensions. On top of the painful human toll, volcanic activity and flooding have dealt a setback to tourism. The construction sector has continued to drop back from its 2016 peak, and job growth has slowed to a near-stop. Still, the fundamentals look favorable. Global tourism continues to power forward, and there remains a healthy pipeline of construction work. And even with the recent labor market weakness, Hawaii continues to enjoy its lowest unemployment in many years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Healthy county economies face growing pains

Hawaii’s four counties are enjoying robust economic conditions and look set for continued growth. Tourism keeps surprising to the upside, even as visitor numbers strain infrastructure and communities. Record low unemployment will limit job growth but bring welcome income gains. Kauai flooding and the Kilauea eruption remind us that the counties remain vulnerable to adverse developments, whether at home or beyond our shores.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Ready or not, Hawaii is set for more growth

Now in its ninth year, Hawaii’s expansion shows no signs of letting up. Tourism has surged again in the first part of 2018, extending one of the longest periods of sustained visitor growth. Construction, while volatile month to month, also remains on a high plateau. The long run of strong demand has created very tight labor markets, and it has imposed burdens on infrastructure and some communities. These constraints will slow, but not stop, growth over the next few years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Not much lift from tax cuts in Hawaii’s soaring economy

Hawaii’s economy continues to grow, but with expected slowing as the cycle matures. Tourism is booming, construction remains on a healthy plateau, and jobs are plentiful. The big story this quarter is the federal tax cuts that went into effect on January 1. These will provide a modest boost for Hawaii families, who have seen little income growth in the expansion so far. Tightness in tourism and labor markets will limit the overall effect on the State’s economy.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Hawaii’s Long Expansion Gets Global Economic Lift

Improving global conditions provide a favorable environment for continued expansion in the Islands. Visitor arrivals are surging to record highs, and unemployment is reaching new lows. While families are benefitting from the improved employment prospects, many have yet to see significant income growth. The expansion is now well into its eighth year, and all indications are that growth will continue, if at a more subdued pace.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Slowing Ongoing, Despite Arrivals Boom

The Hawaii economy is decelerating. Job growth this year will come in at less than 1%, down from nearly 2% just two years ago, the consequence of a flattening construction path and the natural effects of tightening labor markets. Despite surprisingly persistent gains, even the robust tourism industry will move to a lower growth trend as capacity constraints exert themselves. Overall, growth in the number of jobs will downshift to about a half-percent per year by the end of the decade.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Easing, But More in the Pipeline

After several years of rapid expansion, the pace of building has eased. A number of significant condo and retail projects have wrapped up on Oahu, while fewer new buildings have broken ground, resulting in an overall reduction in construction activity and employment. But statewide there remain enough new projects in the pipeline to maintain construction activity near its current level through the end of the decade.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Economies Still Growing, But Slowing

Prospects are good for continued growth in each of Hawaii’s four counties, if at a slower pace than in recent years. The tourism expansion has staying power, but capacity constraints will necessarily limit future gains. Construction is approaching or settling at the peak for this cycle, and tight labor markets will mean a deceleration of growth across other sectors. The counties share common risks, primarily from the continuing policy uncertainties emanating from Washington, DC.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Growth Continues, For Now

Hawaii’s economy has started the year in fine form. Moderate job and income growth are continuing, and generally favorable global and national conditions are maintaining impressive tourism numbers. The construction buildup has eased, but the industry remains very active. While developments in Washington could hurt us, for now prospects look good for continued growth, if at a less rapid pace than we have seen in recent years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: As Growth Ebbs, Risks Swell

After seven years of sustained growth in the Islands, deceleration is now underway. In part this stems from the slowing pace of construction industry expansion. But it also reflects a generalized slowing as demand growth eases and labor markets tighten. Tourism has kept up a record-breaking pace longer than expected; still, there will only be room for so much additional growth. The economic outlook remains generally positive, if clouded by the many things that could go wrong in Washington or closer to home.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Healthy Economy Faces New Administration Risks

The Hawaii economy continues to perform well. Visitors are up, unemployment is down, and the pace of building remains healthy. But the expansion, now in its seventh year, has yet to fully restore household incomes. And increments to growth will be smaller going forward, with a topping out of construction in 2018 and slowing of annual job growth to a half-percent by the end of the decade. There are large downside risks to the forecast, including the strong dollar and a weak China. Neither is as large a risk as the possibility of policy errors by the incoming Trump administration.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Building Cycle Approaches Peak

Construction has accelerated over the past year and will approach its cyclical peak over the next. Jobs and income are now growing at double-digit rates, driven by strength across all major sub-sectors and, increasingly, all counties. Increments to growth will be much smaller going forward, and activity will begin to fall off by 2018 as the surge in resort and condo building wanes, costs for builders and homebuyers mount, and global economic conditions become less favorable.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii Growth Downshifting

Hawaii’s economy continues to roll along, but with signs of a slowdown ahead. The environment for tourism remains guarded, and the maturing of the construction cycle will remove what has been a major impetus for growth. Compared with recent experience, average rates of growth for jobs and income will trend lower over the next several years.

This analysis and near-term forecast was provided to Sponsors and Subscribers as part of the UHERO Construction Forecast. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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