 
Economic Currents ...
After a deep, synchronized recession, growth is resuming across a broad swath of the global economy. Leading the rebound are the dynamic Asian economies. These countries, which were hit hard by last year's collapse of world trade, have now seen a return to export-led growth, much of it originating from demand within the region. Growth has also returned to the U.S. and Japan, but the depth of the decline, lost household wealth, and lingering credit problems mean that full recovery will take a number of years. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Hawaii
Dr. Denise Konan, to present at Renewable Energy and Island Sustainability (REIS) Seminar Series.
UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: Recovery Still Around the Corner Things are looking up for the U.S. and global economies. Japan returned to growth in the second quarter, and it appears likely that the U.S. will post positive growth for the current quarter. It is harder to find evidence of a turnaround in the Hawai'i economy, although we expect recovery to begin by early next year. A technical recovery will not mean a rapid return to economic health. Because of anticipated weak U.S. and Japanese consumer spending and the drag from continuing State fiscal problems, the local economy will take a number of years to fully recover.
Dr. Denise Konan, to speak at Hawaii Ecnoomic
Association luncheon September 24, 2009.
UHERO Hawai'i Construction Forecast: No Bottom Yet to Construction Downturn The U.S. recession is easing, but prospects for a quick Hawai'i construction recovery remain poor. We expect U.S. output to grow by more than 2% during the current quarter, but job losses will continue into the first part of 2010. And, while overall credit conditions have improved, commercial lending is still being affected by the weak economic outlook and the hangover from past excesses. For Hawai'i, this means that commercial and resort development will continue to suffer for some time. The downturn in residential permitting has actually deepened, and we will not see any marked improvement until home prices bottom out in 2011. Hawaii Statehood Conference
UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: State Budget Crisis Threatens Recovery Two recent developments have caused us to mark down a bit our already weak outlook for the Hawai'i economy. The H1N1 flu epidemic has worsened prospects for Japanese tourism, which will lead to somewhat larger visitor losses this year. But the bigger concern is fallout from the State fiscal crisis. Government actions to address the growing revenue shortfall will further depress jobs and especially income this year and next, with the risk that recovery could be further delayed.
County Economic Forecast: Neighbor Islands Bear Brunt of Recession Hawai'i's counties face the most challenging economic environment in many years. The severe U.S. and global recessions will last through much of 2009, and when recovery does begin it is likely to be anemic by historical standards. This means a long and deep downturn for the Hawai'i visitor industry. Construction activity will continue to decline for the next several years, acting as a further drag on the economy. The downturns in tourism and construction are most severe on the Neighbor Islands, and so these counties will suffer a more severe recession than O'ahu.
Roundtable on Sustainability Science A second Roundtable on Sustainability Science was held in Cebu, Philippines on March 28-29, 2009. This is a follow-up to the first roundtable on sustainability science held in November 2006 in Tagaytay, Philippines and the International Conference on Sustainability Science for Watershed Landscapes in Honolulu, Hawaii in November 2007. SEARCA organized the second roundtable to identify collaborative research, capacity building, and other activities that relate to and would enrich sustainability science.
Annual Hawai'i Forecast: After Sharp Drop, Recovery Will Take Time The next several years will be difficult ones for Hawai'i businesses and households. The visitor industry will languish, as the deepest global recession in decades continues to undermine travel demand.
UHERO partners with KITV News
UHERO has launched a new partnership with KITV, the ABC network affiliate
in Honolulu. Every Friday at 6:35 a.m., the KITV 4 Island Television News
Morning Show will feature the UHERO
Report, an analysis of the week's
local, national and global economic news. The Contribution of the University of Hawai`i at Manoa to Hawai`i's Economy in 2007 UH Manoa is an integral part of Hawai`i’s economy. Along with its role in educating citizens and conducting cutting edge research, the state’s flagship campus generates significant economic activity for the state of Hawai’i. Last fiscal year the Manoa campus and related entities spent $1.1 billion in the local economy, creating 21,000 jobs. UHM’s total direct and indirect economic impact to the state was $1.9 billion, $950 million of which was paid as wages to local residents. In 2007 UHM received $299 million in state funds and was able to generate an additional $800 million in spending in the local economy. Every dollar the state invests in UH Manoa generates $5.34 in spending here in Hawai`i. Hawai'i Construction Forecast Update: Global Downturn Hammers Construction The global credit crisis and deepening recession have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai'i construction industry. Commercial and resort building are in retreat, hampered by a bleak national outlook and financing constraints. The residential construction downturn will continue as income and wealth losses undermine housing demand. We now expect a deeper adjustment in the local real estate market, although somewhat milder than past Hawai'i experience and much less severe than the steep contractions in some mainland regions. Government spending initiatives may provide substantial support for the industry in the medium term, but they will provide very little stimulus over the next two years. Community Town Meeting 
UHERO Executive Director, Carl Bonham will join Paul Brewbaker, at a discussion on the current state of Hawai'i's economy. Thursday February 25th at 7:00pm at Pearl Ridge Elementary School.
Hawai'i Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile 1990 and
2005 In an effort to effect national and global climate change policy to address the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, the Hawai'i legislature passed the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2007, Act 234. Act 234 calls for Hawai'i to return its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Here we report an inventory of emissions for the state for 1990 and 2005, and forecast emissions growth out to 2020.
For a preliminary economic analysis of Act 234, Hawaii's renewable portfolio standards (SB 3185), and related issues, see "Policy Options for Greening Hawaii's Carbon and Energy Profiles" Focus on Hawaii's economy UHERO Executive Director, Carl Bonham will join Howard Dicus, Paul Brewbaker, and Pearl Imada Iboshi on Island Insights "Hawaii's Economy: Forecast 09", Thursday December 18th at 7:30pm
UHERO Economists on Everybody's Business with Howard
Dicus
Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: The global financial crisis and widening global downturn have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai'i economy. Economic conditions are now poor in virtually every visitor market, and as a result we expect the current sharp tourism downturn to continue well into next year, with no significant recovery until 2010. Moderate contraction of the construction industry and the developing state fiscal crunch will also weigh on the local economy. We have not yet felt the full macroeconomic effects of these adverse developments, and next year will see larger job and income losses than we have experienced so far in the current recession.
Global Economic Forecast: The unfolding financial crisis will cause the deepest slowdown of global growth in many years. In 2009, the rich world will be in recession, and developing economies will suffer a sharp reduction in growth rates. The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai'i's ailing visitor industry and the overall local economy.
Special Report: Maui Construction The momentum created in Maui's construction sector by soaring median home and condo prices, inexpensive financing, and multiple luxury resort developments has dissipated over the past two years. With the deepening financial crisis and a substantially weaker housing market, employment in the contracting sector on Maui has taken a tumble this year. Because construction has been a primary driver in Maui's job market for the past 5 years, this has troubling implications for the overall Maui economy. UHERO and the Hawaii Economic Association Present PresiNomics
Join UH economists for an informal discussion of McCain and Obama's views
on tax policy, health
care, energy policy, the ongoing financial crisis and more.
Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: The U.S. downturn and record-high oil prices have taken a big bite out of the Hawai'i tourism industry. Visitor arrivals will tumble 9% this year, the biggest annual decline since 2001. Because of deteriorating conditions for the U.S., Japanese and global economies, we now believe that a visitor industry recovery will not begin until 2010. While economic statistics for the aggregate economy this year are coming in a bit better than expected, this will not last. With the steep tourism downturn, ongoing slowing in construction, and a developing state fiscal crunch, the Hawai'i economy is in for a weak 2009.
Annual Hawai'i Construction Forecast: Hawaii's construction sector is now on the downward side of the cycle, but slowing continues to be considerably more moderate than in many U.S. mainland markets. The current business cycle slowdown, increased land and construction costs (mostly due to a surge in commodity prices), together with tighter credit conditions present challenges for new construction in the islands. Local non-residential construction and military housing renovation projects are helping to moderate the cyclical downturn.
Quarterly Hawai'i Forecast Update: Prospects for the Hawai'i economy have worsened significantly since our March Annual Hawai'i Forecast. The failures of ATA and Aloha airlines, the loss of a second NCL cruise ship, and the dramatic surge in oil prices will damage a local economy that was already feeling the effects of the national downturn.
County Economic Forecast: Zero Growth Expected
Statewide To varying degrees, each of the four counties has shared in the state's broad pattern of slowing over the past several years, a process that became more pronounced in 2007. This synchronized slowing is no mistake, reflecting broad statewide—and even global—slowing trends in construction, visitor spending and overall economic activity. There are similarly common adverse developments that will influence the county economies over the next several years. This year, job and real income growth will fall in a fairly tight range around 0% in each of the four county economies. Our expectation is that it will be several years before the islands return to a moderate pace of economic expansion.
UHERO Sponsors
Hawai'i Economic Conference: "Housing, Development and Hawaii's
Economic Outlook" UHERO is partnering with the Bank of Hawaii, the State Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism, and the Hawai'i Economic Association to present an exciting conference on April 25, 2008. Conference topics include a lunch time keynote by the Honorable Linda Lingle, Governor of the State of Hawaii, and sessions on
Download Conference Schedule and Registration Form
Annual Hawai'i
Forecast: Economy Grinds to a Halt The Hawai'i economy that powered its way through much of this decade slowed to a standstill in 2007. The drag from a weakening visitor industry and an unwinding construction cycle spread to the broader economy. A U.S. recession is now underway. The mainland slump, national credit market problems, and soft local fundamentals mean there will be little growth in Hawai'i for the next two years. Some sectors will see net job losses. Moderate growth is not expected to resume until 2010.
Hawai'i Construction
Forecast Update: Slow Decline But No Contracting Crunch
Riding the Wave: Transformations and Cycles in the
Hawaii Economy
UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: Cooling
Economy Faces U.S. Headwinds
UHERO Global Economic Forecast: Faltering American
Economy Will Cause Global Slowing
International Conference on Sustainability Science for
Watershed Landscapes Dr. James Roumasset, conference organizer and director of UHERO's research area in Environmental Economics and Sustainable Economic Development, will join leading social scientists, biologists, hydrologists, and engineers to help synthesize a third wave in sustainability science that goes beyond the nature of interactions in order to facilitate policy analysis. The aim of conference is to present the state of the art in sustainability science research for watershed management, examine specific case studies especially in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, and to advance the development of a transdisciplinary method of organizing research to inform general and specific instruments of public policy concerning watershed management, conservation and restoration. The conference will also identify critical issues for research and policy analysis at the regional, national, and international levels. Contributions will be synthesized into a volume on sustainability science and watershed management.
UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: Mainland Woes
Pose Risks for Visitor Sector
Dr. Bonham to discuss outlook
UHERO Annual Hawai'i Construction Forecast: Despite
Credit Concerns, Soft Landing Expected
Carl Bonham and Byron Gangnes To Receive Prestigious
Community Service Award
UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: Another Year
with No Visitor Growth
UHERO County Economic Forecast: County Economies
Steadily Slowing
UHERO Hawai'i Construction Forecast: Surge in
Nonresidential Building Sustains Cycle
Community forums with Representative Lyla
Berg
UHERO
Annual Hawai'i Forecast: Tourism Pause Means Further Slowing
Ahead |
UHERO Global Economic Forecast: