Products: Gangnes, Byron
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Global Value Chains and Changing Trade Elasticities
The trade collapse of 2008-2009 and the anemic trade growth since then raise the question of whether trade elasticities may be undergoing fundamental structural change. A potential source of such change is the spread of global value chains (GVCs), which have brought a marked increase in the use of intermediate goods and changes in the nature of trade competition. We review the recent literature on the impact of GVCs on measured trade elasticities and the ways in which their emergence may affect how we estimate and interpret trade responsiveness. We then draw out a few implications of recent research for global modeling.
Global Value Chains and Trade Elasticities
Previous studies have argued that global value chains (GVCs) have increased the sensitivity of trade to external business cycle shocks. This may occur either because GVC trade is concentrated in durable goods industries, which are known to have high income elasticities (a composition effect), or because, within industries, GVC trade has a higher income elasticity than regular trade (a supply chain effect). Using Chinese trade data across customs regimes and industries during the period 1995-2009, we find evidence for the former, but not the latter.
Is Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller?
The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth--in the words of Rubin (2009), "...Your world is going to get a whole lot smaller." Using data from China's Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of oil prices on trade's sensitivity to distance. We find that higher oil prices increase trade's elasticity to distance, but that the economic effect is small. We also find that the effect is more pronounced for trade within global production networks, and less large for goods shipped by air.
Published: Gangnes, B. and Van Assche, A., 2011, China’s Exports in a World of Increasing Oil Prices, The Multinational Business Review, 19(22).
The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly Are ARRA Jobs
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was intended to stimulate the U.S. economy and to create jobs. But at what cost? In this paper, we discuss the range of potential benefits and costs associated with counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Benefits and costs may be social, macroeconomic, systemic, and budgetary. They may depend importantly on timing and implementation. There may be very different implications over the business cycle horizon and in the medium to long term. We use simulations of the IHS Global Insight macro-econometric model to evaluate some of these costs and benefits in the U.S. economy, looking specifically at the impact of the ARRA program and potential alternative policies.
Why Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective? The Debate on Tax and Expenditure Multipliers
Recent dissatisfaction with the impact of expenditure stimulus on economic activity in the United States, along with the results of academic research, have once again raised questions about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies and about whether stimulus to a recessionary economy should be in the form of tax cuts or expenditure increases. This paper considers alternative methods for evaluating the impacts of stimulus policy strategies. We discuss conceptual challenges involved in effectiveness measurement, and we review alternative empirical approaches applied in recent studies. We then present our own estimates of policy multipliers based on simulations of the IHS Global Insight model of the US economy. Based on this review and analysis, we address the question of why recent US stimulus programs have not been more effective.
Published: Adams, F.G., Gangnes, B., 2010, Why Hasn't the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective? The Debate on Tax and Expenditure Multipliers. World Economics, 11 (4), 111-130.
Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian trade
The growth of East Asia’s intra-regional trade is driven largely by increased component trade within global electronics production networks. Data on both electronics trade and production elucidate a pattern of specialization in which upper- and middle-income countries produce sophisticated components and lower-income countries assemble lower- value-added final goods. There is evidence of increasing sophistication within the electronics sector by the Newly Industrialized Economies and to a lesser extent by ASEAN countries. Despite the marked increase in intra-regional trade, developing East Asian countries remain heavily dependent on developed-country markets. When Western export demand rapidly contracted during the 2008-2009 economic crisis, these specialization patterns led the rapid diffusion of the business cycle shock throughout the East Asian region.
Alternative Policies for US Economic Recovery
Recovery has begun in the United States and global economies. The US recovery is likely to be anemic by historical standards, raising the possibility that additional stimulus may be desirable. The President and Democrats in Congress have called for a “jobs bill,” and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it has a flexible toolkit for providing additional liquidity if deemed appropriate. The possible need for such stimulus will come up against the reality of an expanding public debt on the one hand, and inflationary concerns on the other. In this paper, I use simulations of the IHS Global Insight Model to assess the potential impact on the recovery path of alternative macro policies.
Identifying Long-run Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the Hawaii Tourism Model
Abstract Cointegration analysis has gradually appeared in the empirical tourism literature. However, the focus has been exclusively on the demand side, neglecting supply inﬂuences and risking endogeneity bias. One reason for this may be the difficulty identifying structural relationships in a system setting. We estimate a demand-supply model of Hawaii tourism using a theory-directed sequential reduction methodology suggested by Hall, Henry, and Greenslade (2002). The resulting model illustrates the viability of such an approach as well its challenges.
Published: “Modeling Tourism: A fully identified VECM approach”, with Byron Gangnes and Ting Zhou, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, 2009, 531-49.
Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: the Case of the Hawai‘i Hotel Room Tax
Published: Bonham, C. and Gangnes, B., 1996. Intervention analysis with cointegrated time series: The case of the Hawai‘i hotel room tax," Applied Economics, 28 (10), 1281-93.