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Products: Forecasts

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World

Like the U.S. economy overall, Hawaii continues on a moderate growth path despite financial market volatility, a surging dollar, and global slowing. To be sure, record-setting levels of visitor activity are beginning to feel the adverse effects, but construction strength and a pause in federal sequestration have arrived at just the right time. While risks have clearly heightened in recent months, our outlook is for fairly decent growth over the next several years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion Will Continue, Despite Global Challenges

This year has turned out a bit better than anticipated, and prospects remain good for 2016. Next year will see some easing of visitor growth, but no retreat from the high levels of activity that have built up in recent years. The construction expansion will continue, and tightening labor market conditions will support income gains. Arrayed against this positive outlook are important global challenges, ranging from the surging dollar to Chinese slowing and renewed terrorism threats.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Except for Weather, Outlook Shines

Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to look bright. Tourism is pushing toward new records, and the construction upswing is building in strength. The overall expansion remains solidly on track, delivering better labor market conditions and the prospect of further household income gains. Still, in the midst of this hot and soggy summer we are pondering some ominous clouds forming out on the horizon.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Neighbor Island Tourism Still Has Room to Grow

After a rather soft 2014, the counties are poised for better performance over the next several years. Tourism will see additional healthy gains on the Neighbor Islands for the next two years, before rising occupancy and costs begin to bring down growth rates, something that has already occurred on Oahu. Construction, which has disappointed so far, will become a significant contributor to growth. Gains in employment have brought unemployment rates down substantially, and moderate expansion of jobs and income will continue, helping to solidify the local spending leg of the economic expansion.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Building Up

Posted March 27, 2015 | Categories: Forecasts

Last year’s construction gains were smaller than anticipated. Activity will ramp up a bit this year, as Kakaako condo building intensifies and new tourism-related projects add to the mix. The more attenuated schedule of rail building and lagging single-family development will generate a lower and later peak to the current construction cycle.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015

The Hawaii economy in 2015 will look a lot like last year’s. Tourism will see only marginal gains, but steady labor market improvement will continue, and there will be moderate income growth. While not all damage from the past recession has been repaired, by many measures economic activity in the state is returning to normal.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Moderate Regional Growth Faces Rising Risks

Posted December 4, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

The Asia-Pacific economy slowed this year, and only slight acceleration is expected in 2015. While US economic conditions are steadily improving, Japan has had to delay for now additional tax hikes after the first one prompted contraction. Lower oil prices will be an overall plus for the global economy, even if they pose challenges for commodity exporters. China’s structural transformation and the eurozone’s struggle to move onto a satisfactory growth path continue to hold back global trade. This limits prospects for exportdependent East and Southeast Asia.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Economy In Need of An Engine

Posted October 14, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Prospects for Hawaii growth remain muted. Despite a pickup over the summer, visitor arrivals have been soft this year, and the period of robust visitor spending increases is behind us. A mixed global economic environment and limited visitor industry capacity will keep a lid on future gains. While the construction expansion continues, it does so at a slower pace than anticipated and has created few new jobs in 2014. The building trades nevertheless remain the most likely drivers of expansion over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii Growth Slows As Global Risks Rise

Posted August 8, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

The stall in tourism has slowed the Hawaii economy, and no other sector has yet emerged to provide offsetting stimulus. Construction has been slow to take over as a growth driver, but this will change as we move into 2015. Barring adverse economic developments outside Hawaii, this should be sufficient to support restrained growth in employment and some improvement in household income.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Despite Lull in Tourism, County Expansions Continue

Posted May 23, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Moderate economic expansion will continue in each of Hawaii’s counties. Last year’s tourism weakness continued in the first quarter of this year, and incremental gains for 2014 will be slight. Beyond this year, available capacity will limit further visitor industry growth. The construction expansion has proceeded further on Oahu than the elsewhere in the state, but it is also poised to contribute growth momentum to all counties going forward. In the broader economy, job growth will continue to bring down unemployment rates and will set the stage for a return to more satisfactory growth in personal income.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upturn On Track

Posted March 28, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii’s construction expansion continues apace. New condo towers in Kakaako are spurring double-digit growth in permits for residential construction. A sharp rise in commercial construction, much of it in resort areas, is on the horizon. Public spending on infrastructure has also leapt upward, as the State works to address shortfalls that have built up in recent years. And with recent federal court victories, the way ahead is now clear for Honolulu rail rapid transit. Now in its third year of recovery, the construction industry is positioned for healthy growth over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: After Austerity, Road Ahead Will Be Smoother

Posted February 28, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Federal budget woes caused a softening of growth at year-end. With that behind us, we’ll see better performance in 2014.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Pacific Rim Will Edge Forward After Weak 2013

Posted December 6, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts


The Asia-Pacific region has seen another year of lackluster growth. The global environment for exports— the region’s lifeblood—has remained exceptionally weak, as the European debt crisis has lingered and US fiscal contraction and inaction have slowed the world’s largest economy. Developed economy weakness and a deliberate policy shift have limited the growth impetus from China as well. 2014 promises to be marginally better, now that Europe has begun to emerge from recession and the worst of the US budget drag is hopefully behind us.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO State Forecast Update: No Shutdown For Hawaii Growth

Posted October 25, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Growth is holding up in Hawaii, driven by still-strong tourism and rising construction. Recent hints of slowing make Washington worrisome.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

 

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion to Strengthen Despite Washington Worries

Posted August 9, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii is headed toward a strong expansion path. While federal tax increases and the spending sequester have weighed on growth in the year’s first half, construction and service sector progress will maintain forward momentum. Incremental contributions from tourism will be more limited as that industry pushes up against capacity constraints. The Islands are poised for several years of moderately rapid growth that will bring measurable improvements for many local families.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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