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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the UHERO County Forecast
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about the UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, but Face Individual Challenges
UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, But Face Individual Challenges
Hawaii’s four counties are moving steadily forward, accommodating new visitors, restoring lost jobs, and growing household incomes. Prospects remain good for the next few years, supported by health in the US economy, local labor markets, and construction. Growth rates will begin to trend lower, as each county converges toward its trend path and as construction moves to, and then beyond, the next cyclical peak.
This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.
State Aid to Local Governments: How Hawaii’s State Government Shares Transient Accommodation Tax Revenues With Its Local Governments
Many states in the U.S. give unrestricted financial support to their local governments. The reasons some state governments provide aid and others do not, and why a particular mode of revenue sharing is adopted remain unclear. This paper examines Hawaii’s recent effort at developing a model to allocate the state’s transient accommodation tax revenues between the State and the county governments. The paper documents the process and explains the rationale behind the model.
The Conversation: Michael Roberts on What a Difference a Rate Makes
Hawaii Executive Conference 2016 Presentation
Carl Bonham presented "Clusters of Economic Growth" on strong clusters as drivers of economic vitality during the "Measuring Sustainable Growth" panel on April 13, 2016 at HEC 2016 in Wailea, Maui.
Filipino 2040: Environmental Resources, Shocks, and National Well-Being
The contribution of the environmental-resource sector to national well-being is the sum of natural resource depletion and environmental degradation. Inasmuch as existing resource stocks are below efficient levels, better enforcement of existing laws as well as policies that incentivize sustainable use are needed. Similarly, progressive royalty assessment of mineral resources can incentivize exploration without transferring the bulk of resource rents to private interests. In the case of pollution, the key is to face firms with the full costs of their production, e.g. through emission taxes and/or cap and trade systems. Calculating total depletion and degradation (TDD) will facilitate the calculation of green national income (GNI), a more inclusive metric of national well-being. In the same way, simultaneous optimization of disaster management policies in the face of climate change can facilitate a further improvement in national well-being, this time measured as comprehensive national income (CNI).
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Disaster Mitigation Infrastructure: The Case of Seawalls in Otsuchi, Japan
Disaster management problems often pose the same types of challenges that environmental governance problems do; they involve decision-makers at various levels and can transcend political boundaries. We conduct a benefit-cost analysis of a disaster adaptation strategy in Otsuchi, which was undertaken shortly after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami devastated the region. Results indicate that present value net benefits from the planned seawall are positive, even if expected damages are low, provided that the wall is capable of reducing damage by at least 50%. A hybrid method of governance may, however, be effective at increasing the benefit-cost ratio.
Sustainable Agriculture Irrigation Management: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Pajaro Valley, California
The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is quickly becoming one of the most critical global environmental challenges of the twenty first century. However, WEF systems are inherently complex; they typically are dynamic and span multiple land or agro-ecosystems at a regional or global scale. Addressing this challenge requires a systems approach to optimal and sustainable resource management across multiple dimensions. To that end, using Pajaro Valley (California) as a case study, our research aims to (1) highlight synergies and tradeoffs in food and water production, (2) build a dynamic framework capable of examining intertemporal resource relationships, and (3) detail the steps required to develop incentive-compatible financing of the resulting management plans when benefits are not distributed uniformly across users. Using a stylized model, we find that in the long run, inland growers benefit from the halting of seawater intrusion (SWI) due to overpumping of groundwater. We also calculate that the water provided by the proposed College Lake Multi-Objective Management Program—a plan designed to halt SWI and support sustainable water and agricultural development in the region—will generate net revenue of $40-58 million per year, compared to an annualized cost of less than $3 million. An equal cost-sharing plan would be desirable if the benefit of the project exceeded $1,268 per year for each well owner. Since this may not necessarily be the case for smaller well owners, one possible alternative is to allocate costs in proportion to expected benefits for each user.
A Review of the Current State of Research on the Water, Energy, and Food Nexus
The idea of the water-energy-food nexus was launched in earnest since at least the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference, when the German Federal Government organized the international Conference “The Water Energy and Food Security Nexus – Solutions for the Green Economy” to contribute to the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20). According to the background paper prepared by Hoff for the Conference, the concept of the water-energy-food nexus emerged in the international community in response to climate change and social changes including population growth, globalization, economic growth, and urbanization (Hoff 2011). These issues are causing increased pressure on water, energy and food resources, presenting communities with an increasing number of tradeoffs and potential conflicts among these resources which have complex interactions. For example, demands for water, energy and food are estimated to increase by 40%, 50% and 35% respectively by 2030 (US NIC 2012). Although various nexus-related conferences, research initiatives and projects have been held around the world under such circumstances, water-energy-food nexus policy has not yet been initiated in Japan.
The Economic Value of Groundwater in Obama
Worldwide, freshwater is important not only for direct consumption but also for its role in the production of a variety of goods and services. For example, water is used for cooling nuclear reactors and as an input for the production of energy via hydroelectric processes. Freshwater also is essential for the production of food, including crops and livestock. Recognizing these synergies and identifying tradeoffs are key components of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus research (Taniguchi et al., 2013; Loring et al., 2013; Giampietro et al., 2014). In this study, we focus on Obama City, Japan, where groundwater is used directly for domestic and commercial consumption and for melting snow. Stored groundwater also provides an indirect benefit: submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) from the aquifer supports the nearshore ecology, including a locally important fishery. Using this case study, we document some common challenges that arise when undertaking WEF research and outline an example of an integrated approach that combines multiple modes of analysis to overcome those obstacles.
Creating Tourism Improvement Districts to Raise Stable Funding for Destination Marketing and Promotion
Tourism Improvement Districts (TIDs), modeled after the more well-known Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), are increasing rapidly in the U.S. With enabling legislation from state and local governments, TIDs allow hoteliers in a tourist destination to ban together to impose compulsory assessments on nearly all the hotels in the district in order to raise money to fund destination marketing. To date, research on TIDs have come almost exclusively from destination marketing organizations (DMOs), travel associations, TIDs, and consultants with vested interest in the formation and expansion of TIDs. This paper synthesizes information from available reports and attempts to provide a more balanced view of the role of TIDs in destination tourism marketing and promotion.
Sumner La Croix on PBS Hawaii Insights: Is Hawaii in a Real Estate Bubble?
As the median price of single-family homes in Hawaii have hit record highs and continue to climb, is Hawaii in the midst of a real estate bubble? UHERO's Sumner La Croix joins Daryl Huff and guests on Insights on PBS Hawaii to discuss what this means for potential home-buyers.
The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the State Forecast Update
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World.
Town Square: Sumner La Croix on the Cost of Housing in Hawaii
UHERO's Sumner La Croix appears on Town Square to discuss the cost of land and housing in Hawaii and the possible policies to address the rising costs.
UHERO State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World
Like the U.S. economy overall, Hawaii continues on a moderate growth path despite financial market volatility, a surging dollar, and global slowing. To be sure, record-setting levels of visitor activity are beginning to feel the adverse effects, but construction strength and a pause in federal sequestration have arrived at just the right time. While risks have clearly heightened in recent months, our outlook is for fairly decent growth over the next several years.