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The Conversation: Byron Gangnes on the State Forecast Update

Posted February 27, 2015 | Categories: Media

UHERO Senior Research Fellow and Professor of Economics Byron Gangnes appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015.

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Hawaii News Now: Carl Bonham on the State Forecast Update

Posted February 27, 2015 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director and Professor of Economics Carl Bonham appears on Sunrise with Howard Dicus to discuss UHERO's latest State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015

The Hawaii economy in 2015 will look a lot like last year’s. Tourism will see only marginal gains, but steady labor market improvement will continue, and there will be moderate income growth. While not all damage from the past recession has been repaired, by many measures economic activity in the state is returning to normal.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Creating "Paradise of the Pacific": How Tourism Began in Hawaii

This article recounts the early years of one of the most successful tourist destinations in the world, Hawaii, from about 1870 to 1940. Tourism began in Hawaii when faster and more predictable steamships replaced sailing vessels in trans-Pacific travel. Governments (international, national, and local) were influential in shaping the way Hawaii tourism developed, from government mail subsidies to steamship companies, local funding for tourism promotion, and America’s protective legislation on domestic shipping. Hawaii also reaped a windfall from its location at the crossroads of the major trade routes in the Pacific region. The article concludes with policy lessons.

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Chamber of Commerce Hawaii: State of the Economy Presentation

Carl Bonham presented this 2014 economic recap and 2015 forecast on January 20, 2015 at an event hosted by the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii.

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The Economic Impact of Astronomy in Hawai‘i

The astronomy sector in Hawaii generates economic activity through its purchases from local businesses, its payment to its employees, and spending by students and visitors. In collaboration with the Institute for Astronomy, a survey was designed to obtain information from astronomy related entities about in-state expenditures. The collected survey data was used to estimate the astronomy sector’s total economic activity in each of Hawaii’s counties for the calendar year 2012. Following a standard Input-Output approach, we define economic impact to be the direct, indirect, and induced economic activities generated by the astronomy sector’s expenditures in the state economy, taking into account inter-county feedback and spillover effects.

Local astronomy related expenditures in calendar year 2012 were $58.43 million, $25.80 million, $1.28 million, and $2.58 million in Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui counties respectively. Total astronomy related spending in the state was $88.09 million. Including indirect and induced benefits and adjusting for inter-county feedback and spillover effects, the astronomy sector had a total impact of $167.86 million statewide. The largest impact was found to be in Hawaii County ($91.48 million), followed by Honolulu County ($68.43 million). Impacts were found to be relatively small in Maui County ($5.34 million) and Kauai County ($2.61 million). In addition to contributing to output, astronomy activities generated $52.26 million in earnings, $8.15 million in state taxes, and 1,394 jobs statewide.

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The Conversation: Byron Gangnes on the Asia-Pacific Forecast

Posted December 8, 2014 | Categories: Media

UHERO Senior Research Fellow and Professor of Economics Byron Gangnes appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Economy in Need of an Engine.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Moderate Regional Growth Faces Rising Risks

Posted December 4, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

The Asia-Pacific economy slowed this year, and only slight acceleration is expected in 2015. While US economic conditions are steadily improving, Japan has had to delay for now additional tax hikes after the first one prompted contraction. Lower oil prices will be an overall plus for the global economy, even if they pose challenges for commodity exporters. China’s structural transformation and the eurozone’s struggle to move onto a satisfactory growth path continue to hold back global trade. This limits prospects for exportdependent East and Southeast Asia.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Brief: An Economic and GHG Analysis of LNG in Hawaii

Hawaii currently meets the majority of its electricity needs through oil-fired generation – causing rates to be nearly four times the national average. In response to rising oil prices and in line with State-led action combating climate change, Hawaii is aggressively pursuing alternative sources of energy for its electric sector. Hawaii’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) states that utilities must meet 40% of electricity sales with renewable sources of energy by the year 2030; however, the remaining 60% can come from fossil fuels. Lower natural gas prices as a result of the “shale gas revolution” is in part why the State and key stakeholders are deliberating importing large amounts of natural gas in liquefied form (liquefied natural gas or LNG) for use in the electric sector.

This study builds upon past Hawaii-based LNG studies and extends the analysis by assessing both the macroeconomic and electricity sector impacts of using natural gas for power generation. We draw upon two recent studies, by Facts Global Energy (2012) and Galway Energy Advisors (2013) for price estimates. In addition to economic outcomes, this study estimates GHG emissions impacts as well as qualitatively discusses other environmental impacts related to the extraction of natural gas.


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An Economic and GHG Analysis of LNG in Hawaii

Hawaii currently meets the majority of its electricity needs through costly oil-fired generation causing rates to be nearly four times the national average (EIA, 2013a). The "shale gas revolution" has led to rapidly declining natural gas prices within the continental U.S. The emergence of a natural gas market that is de-linked from oil prices has renewed Hawaii's interest in natural gas imports. Potentially lower natural gas prices as well as the view that it will help to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions and increase energy supply security through domestic sourcing are major reasons why the State and key stakeholders are deliberating over importing large amounts of natural gas in liquefied form (liquefied natural gas or LNG). This study uses detailed models of Hawaii's electric sector and overall economy to estimate the impacts of Hawaii importing LNG for use in the electric sector.

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The Conversation: Peter Fuleky on the State Forecast Update

Posted October 24, 2014 | Categories: Media

UHERO Research Economist and Assistant Professor of Economics Peter Fuleky appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Economy in Need of an Engine.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Economy In Need of An Engine

Posted October 14, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Prospects for Hawaii growth remain muted. Despite a pickup over the summer, visitor arrivals have been soft this year, and the period of robust visitor spending increases is behind us. A mixed global economic environment and limited visitor industry capacity will keep a lid on future gains. While the construction expansion continues, it does so at a slower pace than anticipated and has created few new jobs in 2014. The building trades nevertheless remain the most likely drivers of expansion over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the Annual Hawaii Forecast

Posted August 11, 2014 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director and Professor of Economics Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's latest Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii Growth Slows as Global Risks Rise.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii Growth Slows As Global Risks Rise

Posted August 8, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

The stall in tourism has slowed the Hawaii economy, and no other sector has yet emerged to provide offsetting stimulus. Construction has been slow to take over as a growth driver, but this will change as we move into 2015. Barring adverse economic developments outside Hawaii, this should be sufficient to support restrained growth in employment and some improvement in household income.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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A Hurricane’s Long-Term Economic Impact: the Case of Hawaii’s Iniki

The importance of understanding the macro-economic impact of natural disasters cannot be overstated. Hurricane Iniki, that hit the Hawaiian island of Kauai on September 11th, 1992, offers an ideal case study to better understand the long-term economic impacts of a major disaster. Iniki is uniquely suited to provide insights into the long-term economic impacts of disaster because (1) there is now seventeen years of detailed post-disaster economic data and (2) a nearby island, Maui, provides an ideal control group. Hurricane Iniki was the strongest hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands in recorded history, and wrought an estimated 7.4 billion (2008 US$) in initial damage. Here we show that Kauai’s economy only returned to pre-Iniki levels 7-8 years after the storm; though 17 years later, it has yet to recover in terms of its population and labor force. As we document, these long-term adverse impacts of disasters are ‘hidden.’ They are not usually treated as ‘costs’ of disasters, and are ignored when cost-benefit analysis of mitigation programs is used, or when countries, states, and islands attempt to prepare, financially and otherwise, to the possibility of future events.

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