1. Skip to navigation
  2. Skip to content
  3. Skip to sidebar

Products: Hawaii's Economy

Keep up to date with the latest UHERO products.

Hawaii Economic Forecast Update:
Recovery Still Around the Corner

Things are looking up for the U.S. and global economies. Japan returned to growth in the second quarter, and it appears likely that the US will post positive growth for the current quarter. It is harder to find evidence of a turnaround in the Hawai'i economy, although we expect recovery to begin by early next year. A technical recovery will not mean a rapid return to economic health. Because of anticipated weak US and Japanese consumer spending and the drag from continuing State fiscal problems, the local economy will take a number of years to fully recover.

forecast summary


Hawaii Construction Forecast:
No Bottom Yet to Construction Downturn

The U.S. recession is easing, but prospects for a quick Hawai'i construction recovery remain poor. At the national level, expansion is just now getting underway. We expect U.S. output to grow by more than 2% during the current quarter, but job losses will continue into the first part of 2010. And, while overall credit conditions have improved, commercial lending is still being affected by the weak economic outlook and the hangover from past excesses. For Hawai'i, this means that commercial and resort development will continue to suffer for some time. The downturn in residential permitting has actually deepened, and we will not see any marked improvement until home prices bottom out in 2011.

forecast summary


Hawaii Economic Forecast:
State Budget Crisis Threatens Recovery

Two recent developments have caused us to mark down a bit our already weak outlook for the Hawai‘i economy. The H1N1 flu epidemic has worsened prospects for Japanese tourism, which will lead to somewhat larger visitor losses this year. But the bigger concern is fallout from the State fiscal crisis. Government actions to address the growing revenue shortfall will further depress jobs and especially income this year and next, with the risk that recovery could be further delayed.

Forecast Summary


County Economic Forecast:
Neighbor Islands Bear Brunt of Recession

Hawai‘i’s counties face the most challenging economic environment in many years. The severe U.S. and global recessions will last through much of 2009, and when recovery does begin it is likely to be anemic by historical standards. This means a long and deep downturn for the Hawai‘i visitor industry. Construction activity will continue to decline for the next several years, acting as a further drag on the economy. The downturns in tourism and construction are most severe on the Neighbor Islands, and so these counties will suffer a more severe recession than O‘ahu. Government stimulus will help to support growth, but it will not be sufficient to avoid a long and painful contraction. The spread of the A/H1N1 virus poses a risk that is impossible to quantify at this time.

Forecast summary


Hawaii Economic Forecast:
After Sharp Drop, Recovery Will Take Time

The next several years will be difficult ones for Hawai‘i businesses and households. The visitor industry will languish, as the deepest global recession in decades continues to undermine travel demand. Local construction activity will weaken further, because of the unwinding residential cycle, a poor business outlook and persistent problems in national credit markets. Like their counterparts on the mainland, Hawai‘i residents have become more cautious in their spending, which is contributing to local economic weakness. Deteriorating labor market conditions over the next two years will prevent a quick rebound of their purchasing power and confidence. Add in a looming state government fiscal crisis, and the result will be a long and deep Hawai‘i recession.

forecast Summary


The Contribution of the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa to Hawai‘i’s Economy in 2007

The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UHM) had its beginnings in 1907 as a college of agriculture and mechanical arts. In 1912, the first permanent building was erected in Manoa valley in UHM’s current location. With the establishment of the College of Arts and Sciences in 1920, the College of Hawai‘i became a university. Statehood and the establishment of the University of Hawai‘i as the "state university" marked the beginning of a period of accelerating enrollment that resulted in the formation of a large diverse system. In 1965, the State Legislature created a statewide system of community colleges and placed it within the University of Hawai‘i, and in 1972, the flagship Manoa campus became the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa.

UHero Project report


Hawaii Construction Forecast Update:
Global Downturn Hammers Construction

The global credit crisis and deepening recession have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai‘i construction industry. Commercial and resort building are in retreat, hampered by a bleak national outlook and financing constraints. The residential construction downturn will continue as income and wealth losses undermine housing demand. We now expect a deeper ajustment in the local real estate market, although somewhat milder than past Hawai‘i experience and much less severe than the steep contractions in some mainland regions. Government spending initiatives may provide substantial support for the industry in the medium term, but they will provide very little stimulus over the next two years.

forecast Summary


The Passenger Vessel Services Act and America’s Cruise Tourism Industry working paper

The Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA), a 123-year old cabotage law, attempts to shield U.S. maritime shipping from foreign competition. It also applies to the U.S. cruise ship industry. The PVSA requires foreign cruise ships that carry passengers between U.S. ports to also stop at foreign ports. Norwegian Cruise Line America (NCLA), which operates one U.S. flagged cruise ship in Hawaii, wants the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to require foreign cruise ships offering Hawaii itineraries from the U.S. west coast to spend more time in foreign ports. We analyze the merits of NCLA’s proposal. We argue that rather than making the PVSA even more protectionist, the law should be repealed.

Published: Mak, J. Sheehey, C. and Toriki, S., 2010. The passenger vessel services act and America's cruise tourism industry. Research in Transportation Economics, 26 (1), 18-26.

working paper version


PBS Hawaii - Island Insights: Focus on Hawaii's Economy

UHERO Executive Director, Carl Bonham joins Howard Dicus, Paul Brewbaker, and Pearl Imada Iboshi on Island Insights

Watch


Taxing Timeshare Occupancy

In this paper, we evaluate the manner in which timeshare occupancy is taxed in the State of Hawaii. Our objective is to ascertain how best to design a timeshare occupancy tax that treats all types of visitor accommodations equitably and enhances tourism’s net economic benefit to Hawaii’s residents. In particular, we address two concerns. First, what is the incidence of the timeshare occupancy tax? Second, what is its appropriate tax base? Answers to these two questions inform optimal timeshare taxation policy in Hawaii and elsewhere in the U.S.

working paper


PBS Hawaii - Everybody's Business: Energy in Hawaii

UH Manoa economics professor Denise Eby Konan joins Howard to talk about energy prices. This conversation originally aired on December 5, 2008 and was recorded in the PBS Hawaii studio.

Watch


PBS Hawaii - Everybody's Business: Health Care and Insurance Issues

 Jerry Russo, chair of the UH Manoa Dept. of Economics, meeds with Hower to review health care and insurance issues.

Watch


PBS Hawaii - Everybody's Business: No Quick Recovery from Recession in Hawaii

 Carl Bonham, discusses the UH forecast which says there will be no quick recovery from recession in Hawaii

Watch


Hawaii Economic Forecast Update:
No Quick Recovery from Hawai‘i Recession

The global financial crisis and widening global downturn have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai‘i economy. Economic conditions are now poor in virtually every visitor market, and as a result we expect the current sharp tourism downturn to continue well into next year, with no significant recovery until 2010. Moderate contraction of the construction industry and the developing state fiscal crunch will also weigh on the local economy. The Hawai‘i economy is now in recession, and as the downturn continues into 2009 we will see larger job and income losses than we have experienced to date.

forecast Summary


Global Economic Forecast:
Crisis Contagion Spreads Global Recession

The unfolding financial crisis will cause the deepest slowdown of global growth in many years. In 2009, the rich world will be in recession, and developing economies will suffer a sharp reduction in growth rates. The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai‘i’s ailing visitor industry and the overall local economy.

forecasT Summary


Page: 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12