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Products: Hawaii's Economy

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in Pause Mode

Hawaii’s recovery pace has slowed to a standstill this year. Despite downside risks from the US and abroad, we expect modest gains for the state economy in 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow,
US Risk Looms Large

Against a backdrop of local slowing and deteriorating conditions in the US and global economy, Hawaii will see only modest growth in 2012. The strongest part of the tourism recovery is now behind us, and further industry gains will be more incremental. Job growth will continue to occur in many areas of the economy, but not at a pace that will rapidly alleviate unemployment. Somewhat better, but still measured, growth will occur in 2013-2014. While we are not forecasting a US recession, American economic and political conditions represent a substantial downside risk for Hawaii.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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KITV Project Economy: UH Economist Discusses Latest Unemployment Numbers In Hawaii

UHERO Research Fellow, Sumner LaCroix discusses

  • What happened in the stock market this week?
  • What changes did we see in jobs and unemployment locally?
  • What are the major challenges for the Social Security Administration?

watch Q / A


KITV Project Economy: Breaking Down The Debt Ceiling

Posted July 29, 2011 | Categories: Hawaii's Economy, Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What has been happening in congress to address the debt ceiling and the nation's finance?
  • Will the Gang of Six plan raise the debt ceiling?
  • Will the plan voted on by the house solve the debt ceiling crisis?

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KITV Project Economy: State Of Our Economy

Posted June 24, 2011 | Categories: Hawaii's Economy, Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses the impact of several different factors on the current state of the economy.

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UHERO Brief: The Lag in Employment Recovery

While US real GDP bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009 and is now back at its pre-recession level, non-farm payrolls only started picking up at the beginning of 2010, and they remain far below their previous peak. What explains the existence of this lag?

This brief appeared in the most recent UHERO County Forecast Report and is being made available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Uneven Recovery Continues

Hawaii's county economies turned the corner in 2010, led by rapidly improving visitor sectors. The recovery will broaden and deepen in 2011, but performance will be uneven.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Japanese Quake Won't Derail Recovery

The Japanese earthquake has led to a pause in visitor industry growth, but unless we see a further spike in oil prices, Hawaii's economic recovery will continue to build strength.

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UHERO Brief: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake / Tsunami in Japan?

The unfolding nuclear disaster in Japan makes any assessment of the near term outlook highly speculative. In coming weeks, as data on the extent of damage to Japan and Hawaii’s tourism industry is collected, UHERO will analyze the impact of the crisis on the near term outlook for Hawaii. In this UHERO Brief, UH economist Ilan Noy asks what research based on previous natural disasters can tell us about the likely long-run macroeconomic impact on Japan.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum

As last year's strong tourism rebound tapers off, Oahu rail transit work will lead an upturn in construction. Hawaii's recovery will strengthen and expand beyond the visitor industry to the broader economy.

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The Impact of Civil Unions on Hawaii's Economy and Government

This report provides quantitative and qualitative measures of the impact of same-sex civil unions on the Hawai`i economy, Hawai`i businesses, and the State of Hawai`i’s budget. More specifically, we examine the effect of civil unions on tourism arrivals to Hawai`i; state government revenues and expenditures; employer provision of health insurance to civil union partners and their dependents; and the family with civil union partners. We conclude that the legalization of civil unions in Hawai`i will have only a very minimal impact on any aspect of Hawai`i’s economy and state government operations.

Working Paper


Construction Forecast: Rail Construction Will Spur Industry Pick-Up

Private construction has largely stabilized in the islands and is poised for limited growth. But the big impetus for construction on Oahu will come from rail transit. Assuming no additional delays, the rail project will lead to a sharp pick-up in construction beginning later this year, and the construction job base will approach its 2007 peak level by 2015. Expansive government infrastructure spending will amplify what was already a building outlook that favors Oahu relative to the Neighbor Island economies.

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UHERO Brief: Honolulu Rail Transit: Do the Benefits Justify the Costs?

Preliminary considerations suggest a high degree of uncertainty about whether the benefits of rail justify the costs. As the conversation about rail costs advances, we should continue to consider the relative size of the benefits.

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KITV Project Economy: Tourism on Oahu and Neighbor Islands

Carl Bonham talks about tourism on Oahu and neighboring islands.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Two-Speed Recovery

Recovery edges forward in the Islands, for now primarily in tourism and mostly on Oahu. But the very rapid tourism rebound will begin to spill over to the rest of the economy in 2011. Hawaii's economy continues to recover, but in  very uneven fashion. Tourism is providing ongoing positive surprises with recent months rivaling the level of activity prior to the Aloha and ATA failures. 

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