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Products: Hawaii's Economy

Keep up to date with the latest UHERO products.

Hawaii News Now: Carl Bonham on the UHERO State Forecast Update

Posted March 3, 2017 | Categories: Media, Hawaii's Economy

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham joins Howard Dicus on Sunrise to discuss the UHERO State Forecast Update: As Growth Ebbs, Risks Swell.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: As Growth Ebbs, Risks Swell

After seven years of sustained growth in the Islands, deceleration is now underway. In part this stems from the slowing pace of construction industry expansion. But it also reflects a generalized slowing as demand growth eases and labor markets tighten. Tourism has kept up a record-breaking pace longer than expected; still, there will only be room for so much additional growth. The economic outlook remains generally positive, if clouded by the many things that could go wrong in Washington or closer to home.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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The Exorbitant Cost of Collecting Honolulu’s Rail Surcharge Tax

Act 247, SLH 2005, granted counties the authority to impose a county surcharge of no more than 0.5% on gross income that is subject to the State’s GET [General Excise Tax] at the rate of 4.0% to fund county public transportation systems...  The City and County of Honolulu was the only county to adopt the surcharge, which took effect on January 1, 2007. The State keeps 10.0% of the collections from the county surcharge as administrative costs, and Honolulu County receives the remaining 90.0% of the collections.

Hawaii’s State Government has unnecessarily profited from the Honolulu rail project. It is time for State lawmakers to rethink the 10% administrative fee. Right now, it is exorbitant. A more reasonable fee is between 0.5% and 1.0%.

UHERO Brief


The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about the Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Healthy Economy Faces New Administration Risks.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Healthy Economy Faces New Administration Risks

The Hawaii economy continues to perform well. Visitors are up, unemployment is down, and the pace of building remains healthy. But the expansion, now in its seventh year, has yet to fully restore household incomes. And increments to growth will be smaller going forward, with a topping out of construction in 2018 and slowing of annual job growth to a half-percent by the end of the decade. There are large downside risks to the forecast, including the strong dollar and a weak China. Neither is as large a risk as the possibility of policy errors by the incoming Trump administration.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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Hawaii News Now: Carl Bonham on BIA "Still Houseless in Honolulu" Summit

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham joins Howard Dicus on Sunrise to discuss Hawaii's housing shortfall and his presentation for the Building Industry Association of Hawaii's 2016 summit, "Still Houseless in Honolulu."

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Desperately Seeking Housing: Presentation from BIA's "Still Houseless in Honolulu" 2016 Summit

Carl Bonham presented "Desperately Seeking Housing" at BIA's "Still Houseless in Honolulu" summit on November 15, 2016.

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Hawaii News Now: Carl Bonham on the Hawaii Construction Forecast

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham joins Howard Dicus on Sunrise to discuss the HawaiiConstruction Forecast: Building Cycle Approaches Peak.

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Hawaii Public Radio: Sumner La Croix on Why It’s Always Been Expensive To Buy a Home in Hawaii

UHERO fellow Sumner La Croix appears on HPR to talk about why it's always been expensive to buy a home in Hawaii.

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the Hawaii Construction Forecast

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about the Hawaii Constuction Forecast: Building Cycle Approaches Peak.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Building Cycle Approaches Peak

Construction has accelerated over the past year and will approach its cyclical peak over the next. Jobs and income are now growing at double-digit rates, driven by strength across all major sub-sectors and, increasingly, all counties. Increments to growth will be much smaller going forward, and activity will begin to fall off by 2018 as the surge in resort and condo building wanes, costs for builders and homebuyers mount, and global economic conditions become less favorable.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii Growth Downshifting

Hawaii’s economy continues to roll along, but with signs of a slowdown ahead. The environment for tourism remains guarded, and the maturing of the construction cycle will remove what has been a major impetus for growth. Compared with recent experience, average rates of growth for jobs and income will trend lower over the next several years.

This analysis and near-term forecast was provided to Sponsors and Subscribers as part of the UHERO Construction Forecast. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on Potential Problems with Monetary Policy in the Future & Long Term Lack of Inflation

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about whether low interest rates and low inflation have become the new normal.

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the UHERO County Forecast

Posted May 24, 2016 | Categories: Media, Hawaii's Economy

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about the UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, but Face Individual Challenges

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UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, But Face Individual Challenges

Hawaii’s four counties are moving steadily forward, accommodating new visitors, restoring lost jobs, and growing household incomes. Prospects remain good for the next few years, supported by health in the US economy, local labor markets, and construction. Growth rates will begin to trend lower, as each county converges toward its trend path and as construction moves to, and then beyond, the next cyclical peak.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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