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Products: Hawaii's Economy

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the UHERO County Forecast

Posted May 24, 2016 | Categories: Media, Hawaii's Economy

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about the UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, but Face Individual Challenges

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UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, But Face Individual Challenges

Hawaii’s four counties are moving steadily forward, accommodating new visitors, restoring lost jobs, and growing household incomes. Prospects remain good for the next few years, supported by health in the US economy, local labor markets, and construction. Growth rates will begin to trend lower, as each county converges toward its trend path and as construction moves to, and then beyond, the next cyclical peak.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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How Hawaii’s State Government Shares Transient Accommodation Tax Revenues With Its Local Governments

Many states in the U.S. give unrestricted financial support to their local governments. The reasons some state governments provide aid and others do not, and why a particular mode of revenue sharing is adopted remain unclear. This paper examines Hawaii’s recent effort at developing a model to allocate the state’s transient accommodation tax revenues between the State and the county governments. The paper documents the process and explains the rationale behind the model.

WORKING PAPER


Hawaii Executive Conference 2016 Presentation

Carl Bonham presented "Clusters of Economic Growth" on strong clusters as drivers of economic vitality during the "Measuring Sustainable Growth" panel on April 13, 2016 at HEC 2016 in Wailea, Maui.

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Creating Tourism Improvement Districts to Raise Stable Funding for Destination Marketing and Promotion

Tourism Improvement Districts (TIDs), modeled after the more well-known Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), are increasing rapidly in the U.S. With enabling legislation from state and local governments, TIDs allow hoteliers in a tourist destination to ban together to impose compulsory assessments on nearly all the hotels in the district in order to raise money to fund destination marketing. To date, research on TIDs have come almost exclusively from destination marketing organizations (DMOs), travel associations, TIDs, and consultants with vested interest in the formation and expansion of TIDs. This paper synthesizes information from available reports and attempts to provide a more balanced view of the role of TIDs in destination tourism marketing and promotion.

Working paper


Sumner La Croix on PBS Hawaii Insights: Is Hawaii in a Real Estate Bubble?

As the median price of single-family homes in Hawaii have hit record highs and continue to climb, is Hawaii in the midst of a real estate bubble? UHERO's Sumner La Croix joins Daryl Huff and guests on Insights on PBS Hawaii to discuss what this means for potential home-buyers.

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The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the State Forecast Update

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World.

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Town Square: Sumner La Croix on the Cost of Housing in Hawaii

UHERO's Sumner La Croix appears on Town Square to discuss the cost of land and housing in Hawaii and the possible policies to address the rising costs.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World

Like the U.S. economy overall, Hawaii continues on a moderate growth path despite financial market volatility, a surging dollar, and global slowing. To be sure, record-setting levels of visitor activity are beginning to feel the adverse effects, but construction strength and a pause in federal sequestration have arrived at just the right time. While risks have clearly heightened in recent months, our outlook is for fairly decent growth over the next several years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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The Evolution of the HI Growth Initiative

Supporting innovation as an engine of economic growth is an essential component of the state’s overall economic strategy. The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism and its attached agencies, the Hawaii Strategic Development Corporation (HSDC), the High Technology Development Corporation (HTDC), and the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA) are responsible for advancing innovation-oriented projects that improve the living standards of Hawaii residents by generating opportunities for high-wage job creation.

Project report


New Perspectives on Land and Housing Markets in Hawaii

Land leasing is common in Honolulu, with many owners of residential, industrial, and commercial buildings leasing land. This report examines land and housing markets in Honolulu and the mainland United States to understand better why prices and lease rents are so much higher in Honolulu than most other US cities. Three stylized facts stand out:  

  • Census data show that Hawaii home prices were already exceptionally high in 1950.
  • Over the last six decades, inflation-adjusted land and housing prices in Honolulu register small annual real increases.
  • Honolulu’s inflation-adjusted land and housing prices have been highly volatile in the medium term since the 1960s, forcing market participants to bear high levels of risk.

WORKING PAPER


CCIM Forecast 2016 Conference Presentation

 Carl Bonham presented UHERO's 2016 Annual Hawaii Forecast at the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) Forecast 2016 panel on January 26, 2016.

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Making an Optimal Plan for 100% Renewable Power in Hawaii

The State of Hawaii has adopted the unprecedented goal of building a 100 percent renewable power system by 2045. This report identifies some of the central challenges in achieving this goal and uses the SWITCH power system planning model to identify solutions to these challenges. A 100% renewable power system must balance electricity supply and demand on two main time scales: diurnal (providing enough power each hour of the day) and seasonal (providing enough total energy on each day of the year). The diurnal balance could be achieved by installing large amounts of primarily solar production capacity, then using batteries, demand response, biofuels or hydrogen production to shift power production and/or consumption between day and night. The seasonal balance may be more challenging. Energy demand during days or weeks with low sunlight could be met by building extra solar and wind capacity, using biofuels, or using hydrogen produced during sunny months. Demand response will likely be less expensive than the other options for day-night energy balancing, and customer-sited solar may be competitive with utility-scale solar; consequently electric utilities may need to become energy integrators and market managers, rather than bulk power providers.It is unclear how much biofuel the State could use without compromising other environmental and energy independence objectives; consequently hydrogen energy storage merits serious consideration. SWITCH or similar models can be used to identify optimal long-term plans; however, a new incentive system is needed to encourage the State's utilities to develop and implement such plans, regardless of who will own the generating equipment.

white paper


The Conversation: Carl Bonham on the Annual Hawaii Forecast

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appears on The Conversation to talk about UHERO's Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion Will Continue, Despite Global Challenges.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion Will Continue, Despite Global Challenges

This year has turned out a bit better than anticipated, and prospects remain good for 2016. Next year will see some easing of visitor growth, but no retreat from the high levels of activity that have built up in recent years. The construction expansion will continue, and tightening labor market conditions will support income gains. Arrayed against this positive outlook are important global challenges, ranging from the surging dollar to Chinese slowing and renewed terrorism threats.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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